Moody’s RMS has forecast a near-normal North Atlantic hurricane season for 2023 due to the competing and opposing influence of several key factors such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and above-average North Atlantic sea surface temperatures.

Moody’s RMS noted that it only took one event to throw a season out of kilter, highlighting the impact of last year’s Hurricane Ian – estimated to become one of the costliest on record – against what was otherwise a near-normal season.

Publishing its season outlook, Moody’s RMS said: “The development of El Niño would typically result in a quieter hurricane season, but the higher sea surface temperatures would fuel more activity. The season could conclude with below- or above-normal activity if one of these competing factors exhibits a greater influence.”

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