Government plans to encourage more walking and cycling could increase UK motor insurance claims costs by around 6%, with the greatest impact likely to be on high-value motor claims involving catastrophic injuries, lifelong care, rehabilitation and loss of earnings.

Consultants Angelica Solutions modelled a scenario in which walking and cycling increased by 60% while injury rates remained unchanged. It found this could lead to a 22% rise in the number of pedestrians and cyclists killed or seriously injured, resulting in an estimated 18% increase in third-party injury costs.

Analysis of police road collision data found that casualties among drivers and passengers have fallen by 46% since 2010, compared with a 16% reduction for vulnerable road users. As a result, pedestrians, cyclists and motorcyclists now account for around 40% of all road casualties and 57% of those killed or seriously injured.

Government plans to increase levels of walking, wheeling and cycling through its £4.5bn investment strategy could accelerate the trend unless road safety for vulnerable users improves. Sarah Vaughan, director of Angelica Solutions, said: “Over the past decade the motor market has successfully adapted to major legal reforms including the whiplash reform programme, changes to the small claims track and revisions to the Ogden discount rate. Those changes have fundamentally reshaped motor injury claims, the former particularly affecting lower value claims.”

“The casualty mix is changing as pedestrians, cyclists and motorcyclists are disproportionately represented in the most serious injury claims, meaning a growing share of insurers’ overall claims spend is likely to be concentrated in complex, high-value losses.”